Fight for the 4G dominance

Although GSM & CDMA still rule the roost in most parts of the world & 3G n/w deployments have just begun to yield returns, the fight for the nextGen n/w has already begun. Its called the "4G War".

The 3 contenders are WiMax (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access), LTE (Long Term Evolution) & UMB (Ultra Mobile Broadband). In this article, I'm analyzing the potentials of each of technology from various perspectives.

From technology point of view, all use OFDMA air interface with IP for data (and voice as VOIP) transmission. But UMB is supposed to provide the best bandwidth, with upto 260 MBPS (Fwd Link).

From backward compatibility with existing n/w's perspective, LTE with a strong evolution from UMTS-HSPA & UMB evolving from 1x EVDO, prove to be favorites among the Service Providers (SP) cos due to lesser deployment costs.

But from a 1st entrant perspective, WiMax had a clear lead over the other 2. Its already been deployed in some developing countries such as India, Egypt & Indonesia. In a sense, these countries have taken a leap above 3G & have embraced 4G technologies, making 3G to restricted mainly to North America & Europe.
LTE is nearing initial development & could be installed for trail runs very soon. UMB has got a long catching up to do here.

Regarding getting SP providers patrons, Sprint has already announced that it'll deploy WiMax for its 4G costomers, while Verizon has pledged to spend a few billion dollars on LTE upgradation of its current UMTS n/ws. But after its Alltel acquisition, will there be enough money for this venture remains to be seen.
UMB seems to have lost here also. Until now none of the SP's have announced that it would install UMB.

So, with two large disadvantages but being the best technology, can UMB still make it? Can Qualcomm, its sole evangelist right now, find good customers to support its development work?
But right now, it seems that only LTE with a strong customer backing & a logical evolution path from UMTS, can provide some competition for WiMax.

Note added on 6/7/8:
Chinese CDMA giant, China Mobile has also announced that it favors LTE for its 4G evolution. Can this be a death blow to UMB?